We’re in a race for space agility, and America is falling behind.
Irresponsible weapons tests, such as Russia’s Nov 2021 destructive test of a direct ascent anti-satellite missile test, provided a glimpse of what combat in space could entail. Equally alarming is China’s heavy investments in its own military space assets. According to Air & Space Forces Magazine, Beijing has increased on-orbit assets by 500% since December 2015, enabling China’s long-range strike capabilities.
Adversaries displaying reckless and provocative behaviors such as operating their satellites near United States spacecraft endanger the U.S. Space Force’s ability to receive viable data when and where our warfighters need it most.
The right strategy
A positive step forward is the U.S. Space Force’s new Commercial Space Strategy and the DoD’s push for Hybrid Architectures that combine DoD, commercial and allied systems for more resilient, redundant and combat-effective capabilities.
One thing is clear: we can’t afford to move slowly. The historic pace of procuring satellites using the 1990’s approach of satellite acquisitions is no longer an option. The historic approach is cemented in bureaucracy, large, exquisite satellites and old ways of operating that often stall progress and momentum.
A better approach is best exemplified by the Space Development Agency and its successful spiral development approach, which balances risk management with an iterative process that enables gradual refinement of the product through each phase. Another successful model is Space System Command’s tactically responsive space program. Commercial operators like Firefly Aerospace and Millennium Space Systems have also seen success with their 24-hour turnaround to launch the Alpha rocket and VICTUS NOX spacecraft last September. Apex, a startup in Los Angeles, California, broke records launching its small satellite platform Aries SN1, going from clean-sheet design to launch in just 12 months.
The Right stuff
Commercial firms have the right stuff to help the U.S. Space Force and intelligence community leapfrog to new capabilities in multi-domain global operations. That includes:
- Digital innovation: Embracing digital engineering to streamline designs, models and simulations to optimize architectures, and leveraging digital tools early in the design process to buy down technical risk and to find a technical solution earlier. The iconic Boeing 777 aircraft, for instance, was the first ever to be designed 100% digitally, resulting in a highly precise mock-up that reduced production cost and time.
- Managed risk mindset: Leveraging innovative manufacturing processes and commercial off-the-shelf components helps to reduce development time and cost while adding minimal technical risk. For example, Maxar uses 3D-printed components for its spacecraft, enabling rapid iteration and reduced complexity compared to traditional manufacturing.
- Enhanced supply chain security: Achieving supply chain resiliency through a diversity of vendors and common standards as well as through cybersecurity to prevent the vulnerability of a single point of failure. An example of this strategy is Redwire and Phase Four’s plans to develop an efficient hall effect thruster as a scalable in-space propulsion solution that would augment the DoD’s small satellite supply chain.
- Common sense approaches to accomplish the mission faster: Implementing an iterative model of spiral development called “blocks of capabilities” to get on orbit quicker. This emphasizes risk management to get things on orbit fast and then improve. This approach is best exemplified by SpaceX’s Starlink constellation, which has evolved in capabilities with each successive generation.
Clearly, free access and operation in space, and the ability to provide overhead data at a place and time of our choosing isn’t guaranteed in the future. The space posture globally requires us to adopt commercial-driven speed and innovation.
The Commercial Space Strategy is a promising pivot that helps the Space Force sharpen its plan to stay ahead of China, Russia and other adversaries in space. It emphasizes resilience and adaptability in the face of the adversary threat. Similarly, the Pentagon’s hybrid space architecture, based on the Commercial Space Strategy, offers a process to incorporate commercial solutions into the DoD.
The Russia-Ukraine war has shown that proliferation of capabilities works. As a result, the Space Force is focused on ensuring it has enough resilience in proliferated constellations, combined with smaller numbers of larger DoD-managed systems in a hybrid space architecture approach to be able to safeguard America’s global security posture from space.
The DoD should also consider building resiliency back here on Earth. Space is the only arena where the DoD does not have a stockpile inventory, leaving it vulnerable to potential threats and challenges that may arise without warning. To remedy this, the DoD should fund the development of critical components, subsystems and systems to ensure the U.S. has a healthy war reserve to keep critical acquisitions on track without any schedule delays.
Partnering with non-traditional commercial innovators could bring new capabilities to the rapidly evolving space battlefield faster. These firms are agile, iterative and digital driven. As smaller enterprises, they can devote their A-team to deliver new capability with speed, affordability and minimal overhead — which could make a difference in the race for global space superiority.
Retired U.S. Air Force Col. Dean Bellamy serves as executive vice president of National Security Space for Redwire, a leader in space infrastructure that brings a commercial-mindset, non-traditional capabilities, and heritage + innovation to national security space missions. Prior to entering the private sector, Col. Bellamy was a U.S. Air Force officer, who concluded his government career as chief of the Policy and Strategy Group in the National Reconnaissance Office.
