2026 will clarify Europe’s new priorities for space

Launchers

Isar Aerospace is expected to attempt its second two-stage Spectrum vehicle test flight, a key step after its first, partially successful liftoff in 2025. In parallel, Spain’s PLD Space and its Miura-5 remain the second contender — after Isar — for the European Launcher Challenge, a competition that increasingly looks like Europe’s closest analogue to NASA’s early COTS era. In the meantime, Ariane 64 is expected to fly after being postponed from 2025 and Vega-C is officially targeting three to four launches.

National programs

Germany’s use of its growing defense and security space budget will be closely scrutinized, particularly how much flows through ESA versus national channels. Italy remains a bellwether: the launch of IRIDE and the decision on whether to pursue an independent secure constellation will signal how far Rome is willing to go on strategic autonomy.

European Space Agency

Exploration budgets, expected to be detailed in early 2026, will clarify Europe’s real level of commitment to human and robotic exploration — particularly moon and Mars — after the Ministerial compromises of 2025. Progress on HALO and Gateway will test Europe’s reliance on transatlantic exploration partnerships. ERS-EO will indicate how far ESA has shifted toward security-driven Earth observation. Also worth watching is the Celeste LEO PNT demonstrator, planned for early 2026, following the sharp budget increase for navigation.

Emerging players

The Exploration Company (Germany/France) remains the most credible European contender for a reusable cargo capsule. Finland’s ICEYE continues its rapid pivot toward defense and military markets, positioning itself as Europe’s leading non-U.S. commercial SAR provider. Italy’s D-Orbit, after a €150 million ($166 million) Series C in 2024 and the acquisition of Planetek in 2025, enters 2026 under pressure to become profitable.

Big industry and European Commission

Eutelsat’s fragile market position (down more than 7% since March 2025) remains a barometer for the GEO sector. The Bromo mega-merger continues, with a planned 2027 operational date. At the EU level, IRIS² should reach key feasibility and prototype milestones, while the European Commission plans to launch a European Space Shield in the second quarter of 2026 — heavy on ambition, light on disclosed budgets.

This article first appeared in the January 2026 issue of SpaceNews Magazine.

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