The space stories that will shape 2026

Time Markers

00:00 – Episode introduction
00:39 – Host introduction
01:23 – What to watch in space in early 2026
01:38 – Amazon’s LEO broadband push and satellite competition
02:09 – Space Force budgets and national security priorities
03:11 – Artificial intelligence accelerating spacecraft autonomy
04:09 – NASA’s future under new leadership and Artemis pressure
06:57 – Space supply chain bottlenecks and workforce challenges
10:27 – Why international governments are buying U.S. commercial space
13:36 – Sovereign space capabilities and global space agency growth
18:33 – How SpaceNews covers startups amid industry noise
22:08 – Lunar Terrain Vehicle contract timeline
24:38 – Blue Origin momentum, New Glenn, and lunar ambitions
28:39 – Amazon Kuiper launch risks and deployment challenges
29:48 – The future of direct-to-device satellite connectivity
32:04 – Globalstar acquisition rumors and spectrum value
34:10 – Cybersecurity threats and resilient space architectures
36:41 – The SpaceNews paywall

Transcript – Space News Ask Me Anything (AMA) Conversation

This transcript has been edited-for-clarity.

Mike Gruss – Hi, everyone. My name is Mike Gruss, and I’m the Chief Content and Strategy Officer at SpaceNews. First thing I’d like to start today by thanking you for subscribing. Your support means a lot to us. I’d also like to welcome you to our first subscriber only online event. We’re hoping to have these types of events on a somewhat regular basis, and we hope this is fun, and want to do it again.

But to kick things off, today, I’d like to introduce our reporters. We have Jeff Foust, who covers civil space, Sandra Irwin who covers military space, Jason Rainbow covers satellite communications and industry, and Debra Werner, who covers all of it for us.

We’re going to get to a whole host of questions today, and there were a lot of them, but I wanted to get going with a bit of a lightning round by asking our team for one thing they’re going to be watching for in the first half of 2026. It could be a program. It could be a trend, it could be a person. But let’s start there. So Jason, why don’t you kick it off?

Jason Rainbow – Sure. Yeah. Well, one of the main things I’ll be watching out for is the ramp up, the continued ramp up of Amazon’s LEO broadband constellation, which is due to go live in the coming months, and would mean that the LEO broadband market would become a true two-player contest for the first time, which obviously has far-reaching implications for the entire industry.

Mike Gruss – Great. We’ll be watching that one closely.

Sandra Erwin – Hello, Mike, and hello to all of our viewers. I think the primary thing that I’ll be watching out is what the Trump administration will request for funding for the Space Force in 2027. Obviously, we’re still in limbo concerning 2026 funding.

However, the administration will be expected to release a request for 2027 along with a five-year projection, which last year they did not provide. So I think that’s going to be a really key thing to watch for, to get some clues as to what programs are going to be winners, losers, where things are headed. That would be a major point for me going forward in the new year.

Mike Gruss – And we heard a lot this year from Space Force leadership saying they needed more money. Deborah, how about one thing you’ll be watching this year in the first half of the year?

Debra Werner – One thing that I noticed when we were talking to people earlier this week at the Icon Awards was the applications of artificial intelligence are accelerating. Spacecraft at some point will stop talking about it. It will be like spacecraft having propulsion.

But for right now, it’s really interesting to see how they are using deep learning, for example, to react to their surroundings, to notify other spacecraft in a swarm, to look at something. They’re not just following instructions or a map created on the ground. So I’ll be watching that.

Mike Gruss – That’ll be a lot of fun to watch. And I would just plug that we have an AI newsletter that comes out every Thursday, and folks can follow along there.

Jeff, how about you? What’s one item or program or person you’ll be watching first half of 2026?

Jeff Foust – Yeah, I think the big thing to look for in early 2026 is what NASA looks like and what NASA does with Jared Isaacman finally installed as administrator.

We saw from the hearing this week that it looks like he is on a fast track to confirmation, a vote by the committee on Monday, perhaps the full Senate later in the week or next week. So he will finally be in office.

What will he do differently, given all of the pressure on the agency to accelerate the Artemis program and get humans back on the Moon before China gets there? And the other question will be, what will he be able to do, given the limitations that may be placed on him by both the administration and by Congress?

Mike Gruss – Yeah, and Jeff, that’s a great segue, because one of the questions we got earlier this week came from Leif Del Uthman. He asked, how impactful do you expect Jared Isaacman to be as a NASA administrator, and do you expect restructuring of the Artemis program and partial restoration of funding for science missions?

Jeff Foust – Again, that’s going to be in part what Isaacman tries to do and also what Congress funds or allows him to do through legislation in terms of funding for science missions.

I think we’ve seen in both the House and Senate appropriations bills that are pending that they have restored in part or entirely the funding that was set aside or was tried to be cut by the administration for science programs.

But there will also be a 2027 budget request that will come out early next year, and we’ll see if the administration tries to cut science once again.

In terms of what Isaacman does with NASA, one of the big questions will be what happens to Artemis in terms of the lunar lander program and other elements, again getting to the issue of trying to accelerate Artemis and bring forward a lunar landing.

At the hearing earlier this week, he was asked about the proposal to reopen the Artemis lunar lander competition. He dodged the question a little bit, suggesting that SpaceX and Blue Origin are already competing. But whether Isaacman picks up those plans or takes another direction remains to be seen.

Mike Gruss – Yep, it’ll be a lot of fun. We got a question here from Steven Jordan. He said, what do you see as the biggest space supply chain challenge? What is stopping the space industry from rapidly scaling up manufacturing and production of satellites and launch systems? And I think that’s a question anyone can answer, but Jason, let’s start with you there. I know you’ve watched satellite manufacturing pretty closely.

Jason Rainbow – So, yeah. Well, certainly something I’m always hearing at industry conferences is talent. The space industry is expanding, and you need the workforce there to support that. Space has that cool factor, which helps attract people, but we’re not only talking about countries versus other countries.

There is competition within the U.S. states trying to outdo each other to encourage people to set up shop there. So attracting and retaining talent is a big one.

For materials, there are a number of choke points — propulsion, radiation-hardened electronics, laser communications. I think manufacturers have learned from the supply chain disruption of COVID-19 that they’re stockpiling more and bringing production in-house, which helps.

Debra Werner – I hear it wherever I go. I hear about solar cells and struggles to find the power sources they need, and also trouble getting appropriate cables — relatively low-tech stuff.

But space doesn’t have the quantities it needs to compete with an automotive company to become a priority. What I notice is people are using money they’re acquiring through private equity or an IPO to buy suppliers and bring on board what they need.

Sandra Erwin – I can add to that. We recently saw the annual report from a government commission that looks at U.S.–China economic developments. They noted that while the U.S. is ahead in space technology, scaling systems continues to be very difficult.

China is getting ahead as far as being able to mass-produce and scale. All the items Jason and Deborah identified are part of the mix. The question is whether the U.S. can ramp up its industrial base enough to meet military and commercial demand.

Mike Gruss – We have a question from Scott Curry at BlackSky. International governments are outpacing the U.S. government by establishing early contracts with U.S. commercial companies to provide sovereign space and ground systems. How can the U.S. government take better advantage of commercial space capabilities?

Sandra Erwin – I don’t know that we’re going to see a whole lot of change. International governments have flexibility to buy commercial systems quickly. In the U.S., companies still have to compete with government-owned systems.

Until the government decides to put more funding into commercial and rely less on bespoke government-owned systems, this challenge will continue. Commercial EO contracts by the NRO have been curtailed, which has been very difficult for the industry.

Debra Werner – One thing I’ve noticed throughout my career is when people announce a “commercial first” policy. That’s already the official policy. It’s just not always implemented.

Sandra Erwin – Exactly. It’s the policy, but it’s not reflected in the budget.

Mike Gruss – Another question: What patterns do you observe in nations starting or growing their own space agencies? Jeff, do you want to kick this off?

Jeff Foust – There isn’t a single pattern. Historically, a milestone for emerging space nations was getting their first satellite into orbit, often with international help.

As countries move beyond that, they think about what capabilities they want and where they want to specialize. In Europe, ESA’s geo-return mechanism encourages countries to develop niche expertise and get that investment back through contracts.

Sandra Erwin – Security, industrial competitiveness, and control of critical infrastructure are major drivers. We’re seeing increasing interest in sovereign communications, navigation, Earth observation, and space situational awareness.

Many U.S. companies are branching out internationally, especially in Earth observation and radar.

Jason Rainbow – I’ll add spaceports. I’m seeing early activity in countries interested in building launch infrastructure as a focal point for a broader space cluster and startup ecosystem.

Mike Gruss – A coverage question from Brian Lustig: With the growth of space startups, do you expect more coverage or a higher bar?

Jason Rainbow – There’s already a lot of noise. We only cover stories where we can add value through reporting and analysis.

Sometimes instead of deep dives on every startup, it’s more useful to group companies together and explain how they differ and what the broader trend looks like.

Debra Werner – We don’t worry about column inches anymore, but it definitely takes more for a company to rise to our attention. There was a time when I could write about every CubeSat startup. That’s no longer the case.

Sandra Erwin – The government relies on media like us to screen what’s happening in the market. Space Force leadership has told program managers to get out and see what industry is doing, and they depend on reporting to help keep up.

Mike Gruss – Jeff, do you have an expected timeline for the lunar terrain vehicle contract?

Jeff Foust – The industry is hoping NASA will make an award later this month. The question is whether they select one company or more.

NASA’s experience with commercial programs shows it’s good to have multiple providers in case one falters. Budget uncertainty could affect how they proceed.

Mike Gruss – There’s been momentum around Jeff Bezos’ space companies. What do we make of Blue Origin’s recent progress?

Jeff Foust – Blue Origin has proposed accelerated lunar landing options involving its Blue Moon lander. Whether NASA picks that up remains to be seen.

Dave Limp and Jeff Bezos are clearly pushing the company to move faster. We’ll see how quickly New Glenn’s launch cadence ramps up and how it compares to SpaceX.

Sandra Erwin – Blue Ring is particularly interesting. It could make Blue Origin a player in satellite mobility and national security space. It’s partly funded by the Department of Defense and could support dynamic space operations.

Mike Gruss – Jason, what about Amazon’s LEO constellation?

Jason Rainbow – Deployment is underway, but launch remains critical. Amazon is relying heavily on rockets that haven’t yet proven themselves at scale, and that’s something to watch closely next year.

Mike Gruss – Where do you see the direct-to-device market heading?

Jason Rainbow – It’s potentially massive and truly mass-market. SpaceX is far ahead, but there’s still demand for alternatives, especially given sovereignty concerns.

This capability is incredibly sensitive — it’s literally in people’s pockets. We’ll get more clarity next year as AST SpaceMobile’s constellation matures.

Mike Gruss – What about rumors of a Globalstar sale?

Jason Rainbow – These rumors aren’t new, but spectrum is becoming increasingly valuable. SpaceX would be a logical suitor, given existing ties.

Other potential players include Apple or Amazon, but it’s still early, and there’s no proprietary information to share.

Mike Gruss – Sandra, how are space systems moving fast in light of cyber threats?

Sandra Erwin – Cybersecurity is often not discussed publicly. Newer architectures are being designed with cybersecurity built in from the start rather than as an afterthought.

Government systems have strict requirements, and commercial operators are increasingly motivated by the financial risks of cyber attacks.

Mike Gruss – Final question: How’s the paywall going?

Mike Gruss – It’s going well. We’re seeing more readers and organizations subscribing every week. All subscriptions now include the digital monthly magazine, and we offer discounts for academic, government, and military readers.

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Mike Gruss – Thanks again for joining us, thanks for subscribing, and we’ll share a recording of this conversation later today. Keep reading SpaceNews.