Report warns U.S. risks strategic drift in space as China gains ground

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WASHINGTON — A new report from U.S. defense and industry analysts paints a concerning picture of the nation’s position in an escalating competition with China, citing institutional fragmentation and regulatory hurdles as key vulnerabilities.

The State of the Space Industrial Base 2024 report, released this week by the nonprofit NewSpace Nexus in collaboration with the U.S. Space Force, the Air Force Research Laboratory, and the Defense Innovation Unit, argues that while the U.S. private sector continues to push boundaries with commercial moon missions and in-orbit manufacturing, a lack of national direction is eroding America’s long-term position in space.

“The greatest risk is not technological failure but institutional incoherence,” the report says.

The Chinese government, meanwhile, has been moving quickly in areas such as reusable launch systems, satellite constellations, space-based solar power, and counterspace weaponry — all of which could threaten U.S. space infrastructure.

“The U.S. must act with urgency to lead the next space age, shape the rules of the domain, and ensure that the largest geographic zone of human activity reflects American values and interests,” the report states.

Calls for a cohesive U.S. national space strategy are not new. Major think tanks and policy institutions have also urged greater alignment across agencies and clearer strategic objectives to maintain leadership in the space domain.

The State of the Space Industrial Base specifically highlights regulatory hurdles as a key point of concern. As commercial space ventures expand into operations beyond Earth’s orbit — including in-space satellite servicing, orbital debris cleanup, and cislunar logistics — existing U.S. regulations fall short. These novel activities aren’t covered by current frameworks, and no federal agency has clear authority to oversee or license them.

This legal vacuum, the report argues, is stalling investment and opening the door for rivals. “The lack of a clear legal pathway is a central concern,” the report notes.

Interagency coordination also comes under fire.

Multiple U.S. departments are independently publishing space strategies, but without an overarching plan or a lead authority to ensure implementation, their efforts are often duplicative or misaligned. The report calls for “integrated campaign planning” and the appointment of a lead agency or official to manage national efforts.

Further, the government is not sending strong, consistent signals about its needs. Without clear demand from federal agencies for emerging space technologies, private investors hesitate. That uncertainty, the report says, slows progress and puts the U.S. at a disadvantage in an arena that could define geopolitical power in the decades to come.