GPS disruption and satellite maneuvers now hallmarks of modern warfare

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WASHINGTON — Interference with Global Positioning System satellite signals has become a routine feature of military conflict across the Middle East, Eastern Europe, and parts of Asia, according to a new report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. The findings signal rising risks for both commercial and military actors in orbit.

CSIS on April 25 released its latest Space Threat Assessment report, outlining trends in so-called “counterspace” activity — efforts by nations to disrupt, degrade or destroy satellites. It identifies Russia and Israel as primary actors in widespread GPS spoofing campaigns tied to ongoing military operations in Ukraine and Gaza.

“The past year mostly witnessed a continuation of the worrisome trends discussed in prior reports,” CSIS said, including sophisticated jamming and spoofing, more advanced satellite maneuvering, and mounting threats to commercial space systems used by governments.

GPS spoofing — where false signals are broadcast to mislead navigation systems — has been widely reported in areas near conflict zones, disrupting civilian and military operations alike. The tactic, once rare, is now a normalized tool of hybrid warfare.

In low and geostationary orbits, Chinese and Russian satellites continue to demonstrate precise and complex maneuvers that signal growing operator proficiency. These tactics, CSIS said, have clear implications for space warfighting and may enable nations to conduct covert surveillance or disrupt rival systems.

Worries about nukes in space

One of the more alarming developments cited in the report is Russia’s suspected testing of a space-based nuclear anti-satellite weapon. Satellite Cosmos-2553 is believed to have served as a testbed. If deployed, such a weapon could cripple large portions of low Earth orbit, potentially rendering the region unusable “for some period of time.”

Commercial companies supporting government users — especially those contracted by defense agencies — are increasingly being treated as military targets. The report notes that Russia has openly warned that it considers such assets legitimate during conflict, reflecting a broader trend where the line between civilian and military infrastructure in space is blurring.

State-sponsored cyber threats from Iran, China, and North Korea also featured in the report, including espionage efforts and supply chain attacks targeting the space industry. CSIS cautioned that attributing such operations remains difficult, complicating response strategies.

As space becomes more contested, U.S. policy is shifting. The U.S. Space Force has stepped up its rhetoric, signaling a readiness to conduct both defensive and offensive operations in orbit. “The normalization of space as a military operational domain and its integral role in joint operations mean that space is fair game during conflict,” the report states.

CSIS concludes that space is becoming “a more dangerous place,” increasingly intertwined with both peacetime and wartime strategies. With nations racing to develop dual-use systems and counterspace capabilities, the prospect of miscalculation or escalation is growing.

“Warfighting will happen in, through, and from space,” the report warns. “A future peer-on-peer conflict may very well bring disruption and destruction to space on the same scale that it would bring to other places closer to Earth.”