Limit Cycles And The Climate History Of Mars

Evidence for fluvial features and standing liquid water indicate that Mars was a warmer and wetter place in its past; however, climate models have historically been unable to produce conditions to yield a warm early Mars under the faint young sun.

Some models invoke thick greenhouse atmospheres to produce continuously warm conditions, but others have argued that available geologic evidence is more consistent with short-duration and transient warming events on an otherwise cold Mars.

One possibility of harmonizing these perspectives is that early Mars experienced climate limit cycles that caused the climate to oscillate between short periods of warmth and prolonged periods of glaciation, due to modulation of greenhouse warming by the carbonate-silicate cycle.

This study suggests that episodic limit cycling during the Noachian and Hesperian periods provides a hypothetical explanation for the timing and formation of fluvial features on Mars. A schematic time-forward trajectory of the full history of Mars is calculated using an energy balance climate model, which includes an active carbonate-silicate cycle, instellation changes due to the sun’s main sequence evolution, variations in the obliquity of Mars, and supplemental warming from additional greenhouse gases beyond carbon dioxide alone.

These calculations demonstrate the viability of a climate history for Mars involving episodic limit cycling to enable the formation of the valley networks at 4.1-3.5 Ga and delta features at 3.3-3.0 Ga, interspersed with cold stable climates and ending in the late Amazonian in a carbon dioxide condensation regime.

This schematic climate trajectory provide a plausible narrative that remains consistent with available geologic data, and further exploration of warming mechanisms for the climate of Mars should consider the possibility of episodic transient events driven by carbonate-silicate limit cycling.

Jacob Haqq-Misra

Comments: Accepted by Icarus
Subjects: Earth and Planetary Astrophysics (astro-ph.EP)
Cite as: arXiv:2601.07159 [astro-ph.EP] (or arXiv:2601.07159v1 [astro-ph.EP] for this version)
https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2601.07159
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Submission history
From: Jacob Haqq-Misra
[v1] Mon, 12 Jan 2026 03:12:37 UTC (636 KB)
https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.07159

Astrobiology,