NASA safety panel warns Starship lunar lander could be delayed by years

PARIS — NASA safety advisers say they doubt the lunar lander version of SpaceX’s Starship will be ready to support the Artemis 3 mission as planned in 2027.

At a Sept. 19 public meeting, members of the Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel said they believed the Human Landing System, or HLS, version of Starship could be “years late.”

That conclusion, panelist Paul Hill said, followed a visit last month to SpaceX’s Starbase facility and meetings with company executives. Hill attended with fellow panelists and former astronauts Charlie Precourt and Kent Rominger.

“The HLS schedule is significantly challenged and, in our estimation, could be years late for a 2027 Artemis 3 moon landing,” Hill said.

A major issue, he said, is demonstrating cryogenic propellant transfer, needed to refuel Starship in low Earth orbit before heading to the moon. That work has been slowed by delays in version 3 of Starship — the first capable of such transfers — and by ongoing improvements to the version 3 Raptor engine.

Hill did not detail the problems or their impact. But SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell, speaking Sept. 16 at World Space Business Week, said propellant transfer worried her more than docking Starships in orbit. “Hopefully it’s not as hard as some of my engineers think it could be,” she said.

Despite concerns about schedule delays, panel members praised SpaceX’s accomplishments. Hill cited Falcon 9’s rapid launch tempo, driven largely by Starlink, as creating “unprecedented experience in spacecraft and booster manufacturing, launch preparation and flight operations.” The panel has previously warned of safety risks for programs with low flight rates, such as the Space Launch System and Orion.

“There is no competitor, whether government or industry, that has this full combination of factors that yield this high a manufacturing and flight tempo, with their direct effects on reliability increases and cost reduction,” Hill said. “However, this sets up competing priorities for Starship and HLS development, which could impact the Artemis schedule.”

Later in the meeting, panel member Bill Bray raised broader concerns about the Artemis program. Preparations for Artemis 2, set to launch in early 2026, are on track, he said.

However, “the panel also sees the path for Artemis 3 and beyond as uncertain and a little murky,” he said, “which is not good for the program’s safety and risk posture going forward.”

He cited both HLS and Axiom Space’s development of new lunar spacesuits as concerns, with “aggressive” schedules. “Any delay in the delivery of these programs places the planned lunar landing in jeopardy of postponement and/or significant delay,” he said.

“These programs remain essential components on the critical path for the success of Artemis 3 and subsequent missions, and need to be critically assessed in the context of the overall mission schedule to understand what’s achievable and when,” Bray said.

He added that the panel will continue reviewing the Starship HLS program, including a “thorough factfinding” of the design and its use of cryogenic propellant transfer, at future meetings.