Will YR4 Hit the Moon? We Won’t Know Until 2028

Earlier this year, asteroid 2024 YR4 was discovered and found to have a trajectory through the Earth/Moon system in 2032. The world’s telescopes focused on the potential threat and downgraded the chance to negligible for the Earth…but it still has a non-zero chance of hitting the Moon. As the asteroid became too dim to continue observing, its Moon impact chance stood at 4%. When will we update this number? Not until it does another close flyby in 2028.