A Climate-Constrained Bayesian Inverse Method for JWST Rocky Exoplanet Eclipse Spectra: A Case Study of LTT 1445A b

Determining whether temperate rocky exoplanets orbiting M stars retain atmospheres is currently a central goal of exoplanet astronomy. To this end, the James Webb Space Telescope has begun searching for atmospheres on these worlds with MIRI secondary eclipse spectroscopy and photometry.

Here, we develop a novel climate-constrained Bayesian inference framework that yields atmospheric pressure and composition constraints from these datasets, while accounting for planetary, stellar, and model uncertainties.

Our approach fits observations with model spectra derived from self-consistent pressure-temperature profiles at radiative-convective equilibrium, thus maximizing the information extracted from the data and providing more robust inferences than retrievals that use parameterized pressure-temperature profiles. We demonstrate the framework on the existing MIRI LRS eclipse spectrum of LTT 1445A b (1.34 R_⊕ and T_eq≈431 K).

An atmosphere does not need to be invoked to explain the data, meaning a bare rock model produces an adequate fit. If the planet has an atmosphere, the 2σ upper limits on surface partial pressures are ≲1 bar for an optically thin gas like O₂, N₂ or CO, ≲0.1 bar for CO₂, ≲10⁻³ bar for H₂O, and ≲10⁻⁴ bar for SO₂. Scheduled MIRI F1500W observations could detect one of the thicker atmospheres permitted by the existing data (1 bar O₂ and 0.01 bar CO₂), if a precision of 20 ppm or better is achieved.

This case study demonstrates that climate-constrained Bayesian inversion can turn rocky-planet eclipse spectra into the quantitative constraints necessary to test population-level atmospheric retention hypothesis, like the cosmic shoreline.

Nicholas Wogan, Natasha Batalha, Jegug Ih, Jacob Lustig-Yaeger, Kevin Stevenson

Comments: Submitted to the AAS Journals
Subjects: Earth and Planetary Astrophysics (astro-ph.EP)
Cite as: arXiv:2605.14997 [astro-ph.EP](or arXiv:2605.14997v1 [astro-ph.EP] for this version)
https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2605.14997
Focus to learn more
Submission history
From: Nicholas Wogan
[v1] Thu, 14 May 2026 16:00:04 UTC (509 KB)
https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.14997

Astrobiology, Exoplanet,